This dashboard is built on publicly available settlement data from EPİAŞ (Turkish Energy Exchange). The metrics below explain exactly how each figure is computed.

Data Source

All production, imbalance, and KÜPST figures are drawn from the EPİAŞ Real-Time Settlement (Gerçek Zamanlı Uzlaştırma / GZU) reports. Data is fetched at hourly resolution via the public EPIAS Transparency Platform REST API (eptr2) and aggregated to monthly plant-level summaries. The dataset covers all licensed solar (GES) or wind (RES) power plants that reported at least one hour of production in the analysis period.

Imbalance Ratio (%)

The imbalance ratio measures how much a plant's hourly generation deviates from its day-ahead schedule, relative to what it actually produced. For each hour we take the absolute difference between the forecast (KÜDÜP) and the actual settlement quantity (UEVM), sum these over the month, and divide by total actual generation:

Imbalance % = Σ |KÜDÜP − UEVM| (hourly) ÷ Σ UEVM (monthly) × 100

Because the hourly differences are taken in absolute value, over-production hours and under-production hours do not cancel out — both count as imbalance. The metric therefore captures hourly forecasting volatility and is scale-independent, so plants of different sizes compare fairly. The separate net imbalance (signed sum, where surplus and deficit hours offset) is typically much smaller and is reported as a distinct figure.

Imbalance Cost

Imbalance cost arises when a plant's actual hourly generation differs from its day-ahead schedule. Settlement is system-direction-dependent: positive imbalance (plant produced more than scheduled) is settled on min(MCP, SMP); negative imbalance (produced less) on max(MCP, SMP).

• Until Dec 2025 — flat 3% margin: positive at min(MCP, SMP) × 0.97, negative at max(MCP, SMP) × 1.03.
• From Jan 2026 (EPDK regulation, Official Gazette 29/12/2025) — the margin depends on whether the plant's deviation aggravates or relieves the system. A deviation in the same direction as the system imbalance is charged 6% (positive × 0.94, negative × 1.06); a deviation that helps the system keeps the 3% margin (positive × 0.97, negative × 1.03).

Figures use EPİAŞ's published hourly imbalance prices, which already embed the applicable system-direction coefficient. The reported monthly value is the total imbalance cost (TL) — every hour is charged on the absolute size of its own deviation, so over- and under-forecast hours add up rather than cancel out.

KÜPST Cost

KÜPST (Kesinleşmiş Üretim Planından Sapma Tutarı — deviation-from-final-schedule charge) is a penalty applied hour by hour, whenever an hour's deviation from the final schedule (KUDÜP) exceeds a regulatory tolerance band set as a share of that hour's schedule:

• Solar (GES): 8% of the hour's KUDÜP (10% before Jan 2026)
• Wind (RES): 15% of the hour's KUDÜP (17% before Jan 2026)

The KÜPST unit price is 5% of max(MCP, SMP, 750 TL/MWh) for the relevant hour from January 2026 (3% until December 2025). Only the portion of an hour's deviation that exceeds the tolerance band attracts the penalty; the monthly figure is the sum over all hours.

Unit Cost (TL/MWh)

Unit cost = (Total Imbalance Cost + Total KÜPST Cost) ÷ Total Generation for the month, expressed in TL/MWh. It provides a scale-independent measure of settlement efficiency, allowing fair comparison across plants of different capacity.

Plant Rankings

Plants are ordered by their monthly imbalance percentage: the sum of absolute hourly differences between the published forecast (KUDÜP) and settled generation (UEVM), divided by generation, × 100. Hours do not offset each other. The figure reflects forecasting but also curtailment, outages and balancing instructions, which public data cannot separate, so it is not a measure of forecast skill alone. Differences between neighbouring plants are largely statistical noise, so the public table lists plants in order without rank numbers. Plants whose data does not allow a fair comparison (for example a partial month, very low generation, output far below the unit's usual level, or a day without a published forecast) are not ranked and are listed with the reason.

Coverage & Exclusions

A plant is excluded from a given month's ranking — while remaining in the registry — in either of these cases:

• Zero activity: the plant reported zero generation and zero forecast for the whole month.
• Insufficient forecast coverage: the plant has both a forecast and an actual value for less than half of the month's hours — typically a unit commissioned or registered mid-month. Its imbalance ratio would not be comparable with a full-month plant, so it is listed rather than ranked.

Every excluded plant is listed below with its reason.

Plants excluded this month

BOZCAADA RES	Zero production and zero forecast for the entire period — not ranked
GAİA RES	Forecast and actual both available for only 182/720 hours — not comparable with a full-period plant, so not ranked
ALAÇATI RES(EÜAŞ)	Generation below 500 MWh for the period — too small for a reliable imbalance ratio, so not ranked
ELMALI RES(ELMALI ENR.)	Output well below this unit's own recent operating level — its ratio is not comparable with normally operating plants, so not ranked
EMRES RES	Generation below 500 MWh for the period — too small for a reliable imbalance ratio, so not ranked
FENER RES	Generation below 500 MWh for the period — too small for a reliable imbalance ratio, so not ranked
GÖKDAĞ RES(İLETKEN ENR.)	On several days a forecast was published but there was little or no output, so the monthly ratio is not comparable with plants that ran throughout the period — not ranked
KORUDAĞI RES	The published forecast (KUDÜP) is zero on at least one day with production — the monthly ratio is not comparable with plants forecast every day, so not ranked
KURTİNİ RES	Output well below this unit's own recent operating level — its ratio is not comparable with normally operating plants, so not ranked
KİLLİK RES	The published forecast (KUDÜP) is zero on at least one day with production — the monthly ratio is not comparable with plants forecast every day, so not ranked
MADRANBABA RES	Output well below this unit's own recent operating level — its ratio is not comparable with normally operating plants, so not ranked
MİSKEVANK RES	Imbalance ratio above our 75% review threshold — not assessable from public data, so not ranked
ORHANLI RES	Output well below this unit's own recent operating level — its ratio is not comparable with normally operating plants, so not ranked
PAŞALİMANI RES	Generation below 500 MWh for the period — too small for a reliable imbalance ratio, so not ranked
SARAY DÖKÜM RES	The published forecast (KUDÜP) is zero on at least one day with production — the monthly ratio is not comparable with plants forecast every day, so not ranked
SEBENOBA RES	Output well below this unit's own recent operating level — its ratio is not comparable with normally operating plants, so not ranked
ÇEPNİ RES	The published forecast (KUDÜP) is zero on at least one day with production — the monthly ratio is not comparable with plants forecast every day, so not ranked
ÇERKEŞ RES	Output well below this unit's own recent operating level — its ratio is not comparable with normally operating plants, so not ranked